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WASHINGTON — High oil prices are fueling
one of the biggest transfers of wealth in history. Oil consumers are
paying $4 billion to $5 billion more for crude oil every day than they
did just five years ago, pumping more than $2 trillion into the coffers
of oil companies and oil-producing nations this year alone.
The consequences are evident in minds and mortar
worldwide: anger at fuel pumps in China and inflated confidence in the
Kremlin, new weapons in Chad and new petrochemical plants in Saudi
Arabia, no-driving campaigns in South Korea and bigger sales for Toyota
hybrid cars, a fiscal burden in Senegal and a bonanza in Brazil.
Myanmar's recent demonstrations were triggered by a government decision
to raise fuel prices.
U.S. pays heavy price
In the
U.S., the rising bill for imported petroleum lowers already anemic
consumer-savings rates, adds to inflation, worsens the trade deficit,
undermines the dollar and makes it more difficult for the Federal
Reserve to balance its competing goals of fighting inflation and
sustaining growth.
High prices have given a boost to oil-rich Alaska, which
in September raised the annual oil dividend paid to every man, woman
and child living there for a year to $1,654. In other states, high
prices create greater incentives for pursuing non- oil energy projects
that once might have looked too expensive and hurt earnings at
energyintensive companies like airlines. Even Kellogg's cited energy
costs as a drag on earnings.
With crude-oil prices flirting with $100 a barrel, there
is no end in sight to the redistribution of more than 1 percent of the
world's gross domestic product. This new high point in petroleum prices
has arrived over four years, and many believe it will represent a new
plateau, even if prices drop back somewhat in the coming months.
"There's never been anything like this on a sustained
basis the way we've seen the last couple of years," said Kenneth
Rogoff, a Harvard University economics professor and former chief
economist at the International Monetary Fund. Oil prices "are not
spiking; they're just rising," he said.
Exporters reap riches
The
benefits, to the tune of $700 billion a year, are flowing to the
world's oil-exporting countries. Two of those nations - Iran and
Venezuela - may be better able to defy the Bush administration because
of swelling oil revenues.
Venezuela has used its oil wealth to dispense patronage
around South America. And Iran could be less vulnerable to sanctions
against its nuclear program.
The world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is using its rejuvenated oil riches to build four cities
and has a budget surplus.
Russia, the world's No. 2 oil exporter, has increased its federal budget tenfold since 1999 while paying off foreign debt.
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