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Oil's run shifts fate of nations

WASHINGTON — High oil prices are fueling one of the biggest transfers of wealth in history. Oil consumers are paying $4 billion to $5 billion more for crude oil every day than they did just five years ago, pumping more than $2 trillion into the coffers of oil companies and oil-producing nations this year alone.

The consequences are evident in minds and mortar worldwide: anger at fuel pumps in China and inflated confidence in the Kremlin, new weapons in Chad and new petrochemical plants in Saudi Arabia, no-driving campaigns in South Korea and bigger sales for Toyota hybrid cars, a fiscal burden in Senegal and a bonanza in Brazil. Myanmar's recent demonstrations were triggered by a government decision to raise fuel prices.

U.S. pays heavy price

In the U.S., the rising bill for imported petroleum lowers already anemic consumer-savings rates, adds to inflation, worsens the trade deficit, undermines the dollar and makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to balance its competing goals of fighting inflation and sustaining growth.

High prices have given a boost to oil-rich Alaska, which in September raised the annual oil dividend paid to every man, woman and child living there for a year to $1,654. In other states, high prices create greater incentives for pursuing non- oil energy projects that once might have looked too expensive and hurt earnings at energyintensive companies like airlines. Even Kellogg's cited energy costs as a drag on earnings.

With crude-oil prices flirting with $100 a barrel, there is no end in sight to the redistribution of more than 1 percent of the world's gross domestic product. This new high point in petroleum prices has arrived over four years, and many believe it will represent a new plateau, even if prices drop back somewhat in the coming months.

"There's never been anything like this on a sustained basis the way we've seen the last couple of years," said Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economics professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. Oil prices "are not spiking; they're just rising," he said.

Exporters reap riches

The benefits, to the tune of $700 billion a year, are flowing to the world's oil-exporting countries. Two of those nations - Iran and Venezuela - may be better able to defy the Bush administration because of swelling oil revenues.

Venezuela has used its oil wealth to dispense patronage around South America. And Iran could be less vulnerable to sanctions against its nuclear program.

The world's biggest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia, is using its rejuvenated oil riches to build four cities and has a budget surplus.

Russia, the world's No. 2 oil exporter, has increased its federal budget tenfold since 1999 while paying off foreign debt.

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