The supply of oil will peak this decade and the world no longer can
depend on it as a cheap energy source, according to a professor at the
University of New Hampshire.
The Dover Energy Advisory Council hosted professor John Carroll on
Tuesday night. Carroll teaches in the UNH Department of Natural
Resources and has authored several books on sustainable natural
resource use and agriculture.
"This is a serious issue that has
not been brought to the mainstream," said Eric Kelsey, a member of the
Energy Advisory Council who introduced Carroll.
Carroll defined
"peak oil" as the period when the maximum global production of
petroleum is reached. After that, the rate of petroleum production will
steadily decline.
Carroll explained that the quality remaining
is poor, but the cost continually rises. The process to extract
petroleum then will cost more for oil companies than it is worth.
"We're going to have to cap a lot of wells unless the governments come in with subsidies," he said.
The
"peak" theory first was offered by geophysicist M. King Hubbard in
1956. Hubbard predicted that by 1974 the United States' oil reserves
would start to decline, and then globally in the 1990s if oil
consumption continued at the same rate. While Hubbard's first
prediction was correct, marked by the U.S. oil shortage and rationing
in the 1970s, reliance on more energy-efficient cars, electricity and
natural oil for heating staved off the oil peak globally until this
decade.
"All evidence indicates so far that we have already peaked, that in May 2005 we may have peaked," Carroll said.
Compounding problems here are an oil refinery shortage and hurricane threats in the Gulf of Mexico.
America's
dependence on petroleum will eventually cause repercussions far beyond
cost increases for heating a home and filling up a gas tank, Carroll
said. His concern is a surge in the cost of food, which on average
travels more than 1,500 miles to reach our tables.
He pointed out that harvesting, packaging and transportation are all fueled by oil.
"Food (cost) is 98 percent oil and natural gas," he said.
Carroll said in New Hampshire, the number one state represented in the grocery store is California — 3,000 miles away.
"Suburbia's infrastructure is all dependent on cheap oil," he said.
As
homes spread farther away from town centers and are often built on
usable farm land, we are moving away from public transportation, jobs
and local markets, consequently people must drive more for everything,
Carroll said.
When the nation's physical infrastructure was
built, the cost of oil remained at $17 a barrel. From 1980 to 2002, oil
was about $23 a barrel.
"Recently oil has been $60 to $80 a barrel," he said.
He
reported the New Hampshire Department of Transportation will be cutting
its maintenance budget by 30 percent because it is too costly to
maintain roads when oil is $81 a barrel.
A couple of towns in
New Hampshire have decided to revert to de-paving, or returning to
gravel or dirt roads, because paving is so expensive, he said. While
there are many alternative energy sources available such as wind,
geothermal and solar, Carroll said combined they would only produce
roughly half the amount of energy that is currently fueled by oil.
For
the United States to move beyond its complete dependency on oil,
Americans will have to make big changes, he said. Carroll touts
localization, direct marketing, supporting and buying from local
farmers.
He also said halting suburbanization and focusing on the rail system will alleviate the reliance on cheap oil.
Carroll
promotes public transportation and would like to see bus lines increase
in New Hampshire that are partially subsided while they build
ridership.
At the lecture he handed out a schedule for the Amtrak Downeaster, to encourage people to use the train rather than drive.
"Actions speak louder than words," he said. "The way you bear witness is better than what you advocate."
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